Boston’s Hottest Market?

David Bates / June 13, 2012-1:54 pm

This is a test. For the next 30 seconds this blog is conducting a test of the emergency real estate sales system. This is only a test….

JAMAICA PLAIN NEEDS MORE CONDOMINIUMS….JAMAICA PLAIN NEEDS MORE CONDOMINIUMS…JAMAICA PLAIN NEEDS MORE CONDOMINIUMS…

This blogger, in voluntary cooperation with federal, state, and local realtors, has developed this system to keep you informed in the event of a real estate sales emergency. If this had been an actual emergency, you would have been instructed to avoid at all costs attempting to  purchase condominiums in Jamaica Plain and seek housing in other communities….LOL.

In Jamaica Plain, they're selling condos faster than the agents can list them. That's HOT!

Hey, it’s not quite an emergency, but simply put, the Jamaica Plain condominium market is HOT. How hot? My quick survey of MLS statistics shows the absorption rate for under agreements in JP over the last month is less than one. So if you’re thinking about buying in this trendy Boston neighborhood, better wear SPF 750. Better yet, bring a fire extinguisher. It’s hot in there.

Absorption is calculated by dividing the current inventory by the current sales pace. Absorption is a good indicator of the strength of a market. Some analyst think 1-3 is a seller’s market, 4-6 is a neutral market, and over six is buyer’s market. A year ago, Boston absorption was neutral, but absorption in most Boston neighborhoods has been sent into hyper-drive this spring because while inventory across the city decreased significantly (-50% +/-), the sales pace has increased significantly (+30% +/- for under agreements). Both characteristics powerfully impacted the absorption rate. Based on my analysis of the pace of under agreements and current inventory (without active status back ups), the city’s absorption for the last month is under two. That’s heat-wave hot. But it doesn’t compare to JP. South Boston’s absorption is a scorcher, but I know JP, and South Boston is no JP absorption rate.

As of 3:26 PM today (6/12), JP had only 62 condominiums on the market, yet in the last month, MLS reports show JP put 70 condominiums under agreement. That’s less than 27 days of inventory. That’s so hot, to avoid dehydration, the entire neighborhood should just down a cold glass of water.

My next post will list absorption rates for a number of Boston neighborhoods.